Wednesday 25 November, 2020

Slow-moving tropical wave has a medium chance of developing next week

NOAA and US NHC 5-day forecast for the Atlantic Ocean.

NOAA and US NHC 5-day forecast for the Atlantic Ocean.

Of the two tropical waves moving towards the Caribbean, the one further away from the Windward Islands as of 8 am (August 29) has a higher chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

The US National Hurricane Centre in its 8 am report said that the first tropical wave which was 1000 miles away is now located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands. It is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 

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Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The second tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands still.

Though, this system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Laura is currently located inland over northeastern Kentucky.

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