Tuesday 26 May, 2020

NHC: 80% chance of storm formation by Saturday

Photo courtesy the US National Hurricane Centre

Photo courtesy the US National Hurricane Centre

Update May 15, 2020:

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there is an 80 percent chance of a weather system developing into a tropical or subtropical storm by Saturday, near northwestern Bahamas. 

In an update on Friday morning, the NHC said the trough of low pressure was located over the Straits of Florida and continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds across the Florida Keys, portions of Southeast Florida and the Northwest Bahamas.

"Gradual development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas."

"It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic."

The NHC said the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday.

The NHC said this disturbance would continue to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, Southeast Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also possible across that area during the next day or so.

In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are in effect.

The NHC warned of dangerous surf conditions and rip currents along portions of the southeast US coast over the weekend and early next week.

For more details, see the products from your local weather office - www.weather.gov - and the High Seas Forecasts at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued around 3.00 pm Friday or earlier, if necessary. www.hurricanes.gov

 

Update May 14, 2020: 

The US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said a weather system north of the Bahamas may develop into the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season by this weekend.

In an update Thursday morning, the NHC said the area of low pressure was expected to develop in a couple of days near or just north of the Bahamas.

"An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the Straits of Florida is forecast to spread northeastward during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm this weekend when it is located near or north of the northwestern Bahamas."

"The system is forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of southeastern Florida and the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next couple of days."

The NHC said the chance of formation within the next 48 hours was 40 percent, and the chance of formation over the next five days is high at 70 percent.

Nearby areas are urged to monitor their local weather agencies for updates. 

The NHC said another update would be issued around 3.00 pm or earlier if needed.

 

Original story

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it is monitoring a weather system which has formed north of the Caribbean region.

In an update shared around 10 am on Tuesday, the NHC said the area of low pressure was expected to develop by this weekend.

Details are as follows:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through Sunday.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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